目录：
1.怎么看港股盈亏
2.港股的盈亏怎么计算
3.港股如何看
4.如何查看港股市盈率
5.港股怎么看价格
6.港股市盈率怎么看
7.港股怎么看多少钱一股
8.港股市场如何看指标
9.港股通如何看盈亏
10.怎么查港股股价
1.怎么看港股盈亏
来源：戴康的策略世界近期港股迎来回调，广发证券发表研报表示，回顾22Q4至今港股行情，赔率/胜率框架解释力强22/11至23/01反弹是高赔率下迎来胜率改善的契机，23/02至今港股回调是赔率空间压缩后胜率后劲不足，美债收益率反弹主导调整。
2.港股的盈亏怎么计算
1、当前港股的赔率空间已经凸显1. 恒指远期PE已回落至很少逗留的均值-1STD以下；2. 指示全球风险溢价的MSCI world指数30D累计涨幅回落至中性偏低水平；3. 恒指股价动量已显著回归接近历史波动区间下限。
3.港股如何看
2、胜率变化的方向之“此消”，10Y美债利率中期呈震荡向下作为本轮港股回调的核心因素，10Y美债利率已升至3.9%，广发证券判断去年四季度10Y美债利率4.3%是本轮的顶，未来1到2个季度预期其波动中枢是3.5%附近，其作为风险因素的讨论可以适度淡化。
4.如何查看港股市盈率
3M/10Y倒挂标记10Y利率顶80年代至今，10Y/3M利率倒挂往往预示本轮周期长端利率顶已至，22.10触发这一条件，标记4.3%利率顶当联储政策利率高于长端利率，意味着联储的利率已经处于限制级水平，对经济形成抑制性力量；1980年以来10Y-3M期限利差倒挂后，美债利率无一例外没有再创新高。
5.港股怎么看价格
根据80年代以来的规律，10Y/3M倒挂后未来9个月美债平均下行60bp，这一统计特征指向未来1-2季度10Y美债利率波动中枢预计3.5%附近。
6.港股市盈率怎么看
通胀顶—>利率顶过去半个世纪的经验是，每轮周期，美债利率顶与通胀顶时间大致相齐或滞后22/10开始美国核心通胀迎来高位连续改善，标记4.3%利率顶后续美国通胀将有效缓解，我们的通胀分析框架为：商品↓—>非房服务↓，住房↓。
7.港股怎么看多少钱一股
按照过去3个月CPI环比速度外推，23年底美国通胀有望回落至3%的区间。
8.港股市场如何看指标
3、胜率变化的方向之“彼长”，三大视角看国内复苏渐入佳境视角一：消费者信心中国消费者信心指数与港股盈利/股价存在高度显著的相关性，目前仍处于谷底，中国就业改善是其回升的驱动视角二：信贷劈叉后的收敛历史经验是，“企业信贷强、居民信贷弱”组合后不久，居民信贷迎来连续改善，港股盈利/股价走好，如08/12、12/02、15/02、20/02。
9.港股通如何看盈亏
目前处于二者劈叉期，近期二手房成交向好证伪“居民预期弱”，在托底政策之下，居民信贷有望回暖视角三：库存周期被动去库—>中期主动补库，盈利/股价动能逐渐增强目前仍在这一进程的初期4、配置“三支箭”，成长占优。
10.怎么查港股股价
广发证券指出，基于胜率改善的方向——美债利率中期震荡走弱、国内复苏渐入佳境，仍是三支箭占优，背后逻辑是外资基于资产比价配置EM，买入一揽子beta资产包，这个过程成长仍占优建议三支箭方向：（1）扩大有效需求：地产竣工链（家电/家具）；。
（2）扩内需“消费优先”&“消费升级”：可选消费（黄金珠宝/服饰/免税）、必选消费（啤酒/超市）、医疗保健（医疗服务/器械/创新药）；（3）扩内需“重建”&“发展”：互联网平台经济编辑/Corrine来源：戴康的策略世界
Source: Daikangs Strategic World近期港股迎来回调，广发证券发表研报表示，回顾22Q4至今港股行情，赔率/胜率框架解释力强22/11至23/01反弹是高赔率下迎来胜率改善的契机，23/02至今港股回调是赔率空间压缩后胜率后劲不足，美债收益率反弹主导调整。
Recently, Hong Kong stocks ushered in a pullback, GF Securities Co., LTD. said in a research report, reviewing the 22Q4 Hong Kong stock market so far, odds / odds framework has strong explanatory power. The rebound from 22A11 to 23gam01 is an opportunity to improve the winning rate under high odds. The pullback of Hong Kong stocks so far is due to the lack of staying power after the reduction of odds, and the rebound in US bond yields dominates the adjustment.
1、当前港股的赔率空间已经凸显1. The current odds space of Hong Kong stocks has been highlighted.1. 恒指远期PE已回落至很少逗留的均值-1STD以下；
1. The forward PE of the Hang Seng Index has fallen below the average value of-1STD, which rarely stays.
2. 指示全球风险溢价的MSCI world指数30D累计涨幅回落至中性偏低水平；two The cumulative gain of the MSCI world index 30D, which indicates the global risk premium, fell back to a neutral low level.。
3. 恒指股价动量已显著回归接近历史波动区间下限3. The momentum of the Hang Seng Index has significantly regressed close to the lower end of the historical volatility range.。
2、胜率变化的方向之“此消”，10Y美债利率中期呈震荡向下2. With the "this elimination" of the changing direction of the winning rate, the interest rate of 10Y US debt fluctuated downward in the medium term.
作为本轮港股回调的核心因素，10Y美债利率已升至3.9%，广发证券判断去年四季度10Y美债利率4.3%是本轮的顶，未来1到2个季度预期其波动中枢是3.5%附近，其作为风险因素的讨论可以适度淡化As the core factor of this pullback in Hong Kong stocks, the interest rate on 10Y US debt has risen to 3.9%. GF Securities Co., LTD. judged that the interest rate on 10Y US debt in the fourth quarter of last year was 4.3%, and the volatility center is expected to be around 3.5% in the next one to two quarters. Its discussion as a risk factor can be moderately watered down.。
3M/10Y倒挂标记10Y利率顶3M/10Y upside down mark 10Y interest rate top80年代至今，10Y/3M利率倒挂往往预示本轮周期长端利率顶已至，22.10触发这一条件，标记4.3%利率顶。
Since the 1980s, the 10Y/3M interest rate upside down often indicates that the interest rate peak at the long end of the current cycle has reached. 22.10 triggers this condition, marking the 4.3% interest rate peak.
当联储政策利率高于长端利率，意味着联储的利率已经处于限制级水平，对经济形成抑制性力量；1980年以来10Y-3M期限利差倒挂后，美债利率无一例外没有再创新高When the Fed policy rate is higher than the long-end interest rate, it means that the Fed interest rate is already at the limit level, creating a restraining force on the economy; after the 10Y-3M maturity spread has been upside down since 1980, US Treasury interest rates have not reached new highs without exception.。
根据80年代以来的规律，10Y/3M倒挂后未来9个月美债平均下行60bp，这一统计特征指向未来1-2季度10Y美债利率波动中枢预计3.5%附近According to the pattern since the 1980s, US Treasuries averaged a downward 60bp in the next nine months after 10Y/3M was upside down, a statistical feature that points to around 3.5 per cent expected by the interest rate volatility center for 10Y US Treasuries in the coming 1-2 quarters.。
通胀顶—>利率顶Inflation top-> interest rate top过去半个世纪的经验是，每轮周期，美债利率顶与通胀顶时间大致相齐或滞后22/10开始美国核心通胀迎来高位连续改善，标记4.3%利率顶。
The experience of the past half century is that in each cycle, the peak of interest rates on US debt is roughly in line with or lagging behind the peak of inflation. Core inflation in the United States has seen a series of improvements since 22prime 10, marking the top of 4.3% interest rates.
后续美国通胀将有效缓解，我们的通胀分析框架为：商品↓—>非房服务↓，住房↓按照过去3个月CPI环比速度外推，23年底美国通胀有望回落至3%的区间In the follow-up, US inflation will be effectively alleviated. Our inflation analysis framework is: commodity ↓-> non-housing service ↓, housing ↓. Extrapolated from the month-on-month rate of CPI over the past three months, US inflation is expected to fall back to the 3 per cent range by the end of 23 years.。
3、胜率变化的方向之“彼长”，三大视角看国内复苏渐入佳境3. The "other strength" of the changing direction of the winning rate, and the domestic recovery is getting better from the three perspectives.
视角一：消费者信心中国消费者信心指数与港股盈利/股价存在高度显著的相关性，目前仍处于谷底，中国就业改善是其回升的驱动视角二：信贷劈叉后的收敛历史经验是，“企业信贷强、居民信贷弱”组合后不久，居民信贷迎来连续改善，港股盈利/股价走好，如08/12、12/02、15/02、20/02。
目前处于二者劈叉期，近期二手房成交向好证伪“居民预期弱”，在托底政策之下，居民信贷有望回暖视角三：库存周期被动去库—>中期主动补库，盈利/股价动能逐渐增强目前仍在这一进程的初期Perspective one: consumer confidence. There is a highly significant correlation between Chinese consumer confidence index and Hong Kong stock earnings / share prices, which is still at rock bottom, driven by improved employment in China.。
Perspective 2: convergence after credit split. The historical experience is that shortly after the combination of "strong corporate credit and weak household credit", household credit has continued to improve, and Hong Kong stock earnings / stock prices have improved, such as 08max 12, 12max 02, 15max 02, 2002. Currently in the two split period, the recent second-hand housing transactions to good falsification "residents are expected to be weak", under the support policy, residents credit is expected to pick up.
Perspective 3: inventory cycle. Passively go to the treasury-> take the initiative to replenish the treasury in the medium term, the profit / stock price momentum increases gradually. It is still in the early stages of this process.
4、配置“三支箭”，成长占优4. Configure "three arrows" for dominant growth.广发证券指出，基于胜率改善的方向——美债利率中期震荡走弱、国内复苏渐入佳境，仍是三支箭占优，背后逻辑是外资基于资产比价配置EM，买入一揽子beta资产包，这个过程成长仍占优。
建议三支箭方向：（1）扩大有效需求：地产竣工链（家电/家具）；GF Securities Co., LTD. pointed out that based on the direction of improvement in the victory rate-- the medium-term volatility of US debt interest rates is weaker and the domestic recovery is getting better, there are still three arrows dominating. The logic behind this is that foreign investors allocate EM based on asset parity and buy a package of beta asset packages, and this process of growth is still dominant. Three arrows are suggested: (1) expand effective demand: real estate completion chain (home appliances / furniture)
（2）扩内需“消费优先”&“消费升级”：可选消费（黄金珠宝/服饰/免税）、必选消费（啤酒/超市）、医疗保健（医疗服务/器械/创新药）；(2) expanding domestic demand "consumption first" & "consumption upgrading": optional consumption (gold jewelry / clothing / duty-free), compulsory consumption (beer / supermarket), health care (medical services / devices / innovative drugs)
（3）扩内需“重建”&“发展”：互联网平台经济(3) expanding domestic demand, "reconstruction" & "development": Internet platform economy.。
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